So maybe the odds that you come to calculate might look something like the below that in 10 years BTC will:
1) Go to zero (or less than $10) (and not recover) - less than 1%
2) Go to a price that is between $10 and $1k (and not recover) - less than 5%
3) Go to a price that is between $1k and $10k (and not recover) - less than 8%
4) Go to a price that is between $10k and $35k (and not recover) - less than 9%
5) Go to a price that is between $35k and below the current price ($66k-ish) (and not recover) - less than 10%
6) Go to a price that is between the current price ($66k-ish) and $150k (and get stuck there) - around 10%
7) Go to a price that is between $150k and $500k (and get stuck there) - around 12.5%
8 ) Go to a price that is between $500k and $1m (and get stuck there) - around 12.5%
9) Go to a price that is between $1m and $2m (and get stuck there) - around 12.5%
10) Go to a price that is between $2m and $10m (and get stuck there) - around 12.5%
11) Go to a price that is higher $10m - around 7%
Thumbs up for this Jay. However, i believe its a complex task to predict the price movement of bitcoin. But you have made efforts to share your thoughts on what concerns you.
You have assigned a probability of <1% to Bitcoin reaching zero which I fully agree with you. It is difficult to believe that Bitcoin will ever go to zero someday irrespective of the factors that may affect the price (regulation, adoption, technical development, and competition). Prediction number 9 interests me the most. This is because the probability of hitting $1m and $2 is above the 12.5% margin. I support any investor with a whole of Bitcoin and will be much happier. My only consideration is that the price won't get stuck there. I don't know your reasons for thinking that the price would get stuck at certain price ranges, which is not typical market behavior for Bitcoin. The market tends to fluctuate so sustained plateaus are unlikely.
Here's how confident I am predicting that the price of Bitcoin will be in the next 10 years.
Low-end prediction: $500k - $800k - 70%
High end: $1M - $2M - 30%
Considering that the rate of inflation may be greater 10 years from now, I doubt that bitcoin would want to remain at the bottom when it's a hedge against inflation.