Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Merits 1 from 1 user
Re: Buy the DIP, and HODL!
by
teamsherry
on 30/03/2024, 10:38:00 UTC
⭐ Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

This is a good point.

A person might want to be as aggressive as he can be within his own means to acquire as many bitcoin as he is able to do, and there is nothing wrong with that as long as he does not cause something like the wealth (or the earlier BTC adoption) of someone else to cloud his own visions regarding some of his own limits.

There is no problem with some healthy levels of competition, since it is quite likely that many of us engage in a certain level of competition, yet there are also some needs for measuring our own levels of aggressiveness in reasonable kinds of ways in order that we do not end up overdoing it or even contributing to our own levels of becoming too emotional in the ways that we are investing and/or protecting ourselves..  

Let's say for example, there are two guys of very similar economic status and maybe in their early 30s, and maybe they earn around $40k per year and they are able to save and/or invest around $4k (10%) to $10k (25%) per year - depending on how aggressive they are or how much they had been building up their investment portfolios.. so if each of them had been investing and/saving for 10 years, there could be quite a bit of variance in both the size of their investment portfolio and also what is contained in their investment portfolio, and after 10 years investing,

Guy1-  Earlier bitcoin investor with 10% investment -  might have around $40k invested - but he discovered bitcoin 7 years ago.. so he has around $22k invested into traditional investments  like stocks ($8k in his first 2 years and then $14k in his last 7 years).. and around $18k invested into bitcoin at $50 per week that resulted in about 2 BTC.  If we assume around a 50% increase in the value of his traditional investment, his total investment portfolio is worth about $161k ($21k stocks + $140k BTC)

Guy2- Later Bitcoin investor with 25% invested -  might have $100k invested but only invested into traditional investments of stocks, and just discovered BTC... so the total value of his investment portfolio might be around $150k.. so this guy surely could catch up to the earlier guy by starting to invest aggressively into bitcoin at around $200 per week (or even lump sump moving some of his earlier investment into BTC), yet it does not seem as practical to lump sum invest with all of it, so he has to find some  kind of a balance and then start to pursue bitcoin with $200 per week and he will likely end up passing up the guy who is ONLY investing 10% of his income.. and perhaps only 5% into bitcoin.

On the other hand, if there were a third guy (guy3) with the same demographics as the other two and a 15% per year investment of his salary which would be $6k per year and a total of $60k invested over 10 years -  but who had taken both a more aggressive bitcoin stance and a more aggressive overall investment stance than the 10% guy but not as aggressive as the 25% guy, yet who had also discovered bitcoin around 7 years ago and who had been investing into bitcoin for the last 7 years at $100 per week, and who continues to invest at $100 per week.. so his total portfolio has $23,500 invested into stocks and then $36,500 invested into bitcoin with 4 BTC accumulated  So his total portfolio would be $315k ($35k stocks and $280k BTC)

The second guy who is investing 25% per year for the past 10 years is the most aggressive of the three investors, yet his total portfolio has performed the worst over the past 10 years, and since in this scenario, he had just discovered bitcoin, he surely could catch up and pass the first guy in a fairly short period of time, yet if those two guys were to maintain their same pace, it could take him 15-20 years to catch up to the third guy since the third guys in not overly aggressive, but he is maintaining a pretty good pace of $100 per week, and he might never catch up to the third guy unless he increases his income and/or cuts his expensive, but he might not have as much room to work with since he is already aggressively investing 25% of his income at $200 per week-ish, so it is not always easy to either increase your income or decrease your expenses in order to be able to invest more, so in some sense, the second guy just has to continue to invest at his own pace and there may be some points in which he ends up catching up to the third guy. but surely no guarantees and probably no reason to really overly stress out about.

Amongst all three it seems that the second person has a far more better investment stance than the first and slightly better than the third and this is because he was a little fairly aggressive than the first person and continued to input 25% to his weekly DCA buying (And its clear from your explanation that all of them had equal financial capability and probably also had figured out their cashflow very well, meaning that they all had equal ability to be aggressive as the second person but for one reason or the other did not, maybe cause they are also feeding other asset alongside bitcoin),  I know that clearly the time he started has put him at quite a disadvantage compared to how well his other fellows investment are doing and how long they have been into it, and from your explanation he had already invested 100k in traditional investments which should already be bringing in some dividends by now that he could use to front load his investment at some point, but this would only be achieved if he realises at some point that bitcoin is a more better asset than the rest and decides to have more value in it then liquidating some asset is possible, just like Micheal saylor that sold most of his MSTR shares just to buy more bitcoin, IMO if the second guy wants to catch up at some point he must actually have to take a different approach than just the normal consistency, he has to also adopt other buying the dip strategies and maybe more investment into bitcoin with lump sum, but yeah it has to be done in a way that he won't be messing up himself too much and maybe spread his aggression over the years so that his other asset can still be generating extra income for him to invest in bitcoin.

The third person is also having a good portfolio and that is because he was fairly aggressive to invest in bitcoin and maybe at some point reduced his allocations to other asset.

My lesson from this is simple, get started early, now is early for me that started 2 months ago to invest and if I maintain my consistency with a little aggression like third cause I'm not well able now to be like the second untill I have an income raise then I'll be far better than someone who is going to start investing later in the future.