⭐ Merited by virginorange (1)
SegWit and Taproot didn't change much for an average user, and LN is still so far from being "officially" launched that it might as well be ignored.
I disagree. Imagine where the fees would be now if Segwit hadn't happened. BTC throughput has more than doubled since pre-Segwit times. Taproot is still new, but stuff like RGB and Taproot Assets, once more mature, could be game changers too, leading to a new paradigm for crypto tokens where off- and onchain methods are combined for a more scalable approach.And while sidechains/rollups are still not really a thing on Bitcoin, they have improved Ethereum throughput already greatly. Already in 2023 gas fees plummeted 80%. I'm observing some projects which could lead to similar developments on Bitcoin, mainly Nomic (already operational but still in an experimental stage) and SBTC on the Stacks blockchain (mainnet not launched still). These projects have still their problems, and I would even predict that a completely different sidechain will be the one that finally reaches the breakthrough. But compared to 3-4 years ago when the development of L2s had been almost stalled, they have made a big jump forward.
Regarding LN, you may have missed that it is now accepted at most major exchanges which is a big milestone. LN was launched in 2018 on mainnet, it is now at the same stage than social networks were in 2003 (if we take into account that the first social networking service, SixDegrees, was launched in 1997). The early 2000s in social media tech were a period which "to the average user" looked like a stagnation but under the hood there was MySpace and one year later Facebook emerging which were the foundation for the boom of this tech in 2007-10. So if LN evolved in the same speed than social networks, we could expect a final breakthrough in mass adoption in ~2026-28. Maybe it's even faster
The perspective has changed and it's no longer perceived as something that can just go out the back door in a matter of seconds, it has earned a solid foothold in the markets, there are people with long term investments that are chasing not just huge revenues but even continuous over the stock market average small gains long-term.
But still not quite a supercycle, more like a chimera of things, cause I don't see with this change huge jumps happening also, when gains will in short periods outpace other investment some will just take those gains and switch to something else, believing and creating themselves tiny cycles of growth and retracements but with an overall direction following stock markets and economic trends.
I sorta agree here, although I think it's still a quite optimist point of view. It's possible that we've not reached this point entirely. But we may be on a good path, partly due to ETFs, ETNs and other financial products based on BTC.But still not quite a supercycle, more like a chimera of things, cause I don't see with this change huge jumps happening also, when gains will in short periods outpace other investment some will just take those gains and switch to something else, believing and creating themselves tiny cycles of growth and retracements but with an overall direction following stock markets and economic trends.
I'm on the same page as hatshepsut93 on the stagnation, let's be honest other than the price, it for sure hasn't made any progress in things like commerce or even remittance, adoption has turned more to some numbers in a CEX account, and ..that's about all.
I agree here and that's the whole point of the thread "Adoption" in these times is basically "more people speculating". And if we're unlucky, it's people speculating in exactly the same way than in the 2013 and 2017 bull runs: trying to buy when the bull market is already in full force and then refuse to sell when the greed level is highest -- and then panic selling in the bear market.I see more people talking about DCA and similar stuff (I take the opportunity to this excellent thread by @virginorange for an improved DCA strategy) but I believe it's still a minority phenomenon. If we want the Supercycle, this has to change. Maybe gradually.