Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: How Bitcoin Supercycle could become reality
by
d5000
on 30/03/2024, 22:12:18 UTC
With what do we compare it, gold lingots? Visa cards? Stock market shares distribution? Robinhood accounts?
This is the reason why every time I hear adoption I want to ask what kind of adoption and more importantly, for what adoption do we (whatever we means here) even aim?
I've already listed some points in the OP.

But to elaborate a bit further on my "line of thought":

Bitcoin's most important unique selling proposition is censorship resistance. Censorship resistance makes sense mainly for payments (value transfers) and "storage of value". Thus all adoption based on these two main functions should imo be encouraged.

But these functions are the ones most affected by Bitcoin's volatility. You currently don't really have a reliable storage of value with BTC, only if you hold it for more than 2-4 years (depending where you invested). And the payments function is stagnating partly also due to volatility ("why waste my precious btc on buying things") and also because of the fee problem, which is why scalability-enhancing technology is so important. Currently, there are more ecommerce transactions in LTC than in BTC!

The points I outlined in the OP are several kinds of investment and/or usage scenarios which would be useful to really enter the path to a storage of value and payment medium. It doesn't have to be a perfect unit of account, but it should also not put your capital in serious danger if you invest in a bad moment. Numbers aren't that important ("1 billion people using BTC"), the important thing is that the share of these usage scenarios grows and eventually becomes dominant. I think we are already on the path already, but need to advance further, and the faster the better.

In contrast, speculation on CEXes is exactly the opposite. You don't need censorship resistance for that, because the CEX can always censor you. It can be argued that many of the strategies employed by speculators are even harmful to the storage of value concept because they tend to rise volatility (short selling, massive squeezes and liquidations, extreme FOMO etc.).