The outcome of exchange tokens are purely dependent on how the exchange has been performing as it will be trending high if the exchange is famous and have more liquidity like Binance but at the sametime there is a larger risk involved as the coin can fail if the exchange is not performing upto the mark, centralized exchanges with good trading volume have higher chances of being profitable but low liquidity exchanges and DEX won't worth it.
I quite agree with your submission. Binance has the highest liquidity among centralized exchanges hence the reason why BNB has gained so much and the price is high. Looking at the price of BGB which is still less than $1.5 with a good mcap and they are top 10 exchange according to coingecko, i have a strong feeling they might be like Binance in the near future looking at the giant stride the exchange has been making in the last couple of years. What do you think?