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The reason that the price tends to go up after a halvening is that it might take a bit of time for the lowering of the new supply to be felt, yet this time around, it appears that there is an ongoing pressure on the BTC supply that had not been so much present in earlier halvenings, so if the ongoing pressures continue to be put on the existing BTC supply, then surely the BTC price will go up and it will allow for more BTC to be available for sale, yet it if the buying pressure is greater than the amount of coins that existing BTC holders are ready, willing and/or able to sell, then the BTC price will go up until a sufficient amount of BTC supply is made available for the various ongoing new BTC buyers are able to get their BTC (in this case quite a bit still seems to be coming from the new BTC ETF issuers).
In addition, prices tend to rise because this is the reward miners deserve so they can maintain their business. If prices don't rise, I really believe that many miners will have to go out of business because they can't afford the mining industry because of the lower reward they get per block.
I'm not sure about how much it will affect miners, but it will definitely have an impact.I so far agree that bitcoin will get more expensive over time, but I have to ignore short-term volatility and set targets in the long term. Of course $100k is on the way, but we never know how quickly $100k can be reached after the halving.
Yes the halving event has an impact on the miners such that their rewards for mining new btc reduces by 50% and this will affect more on miners that has high production cost while
those with lower production cost will not feel much of the impact as compared with those that has higher production cost because the rewards for mining a block will be half.
Generally what you are saying Tmoonz is correct, but you said it in a way that is not technically correct - especially since all miners are going to end up feeling the impact of the halvening, yet some miners who are more efficient are going to be able to survive the halvening more easily, and it is quite likely that some of the less efficient miners are going to end up getting forced out of business, but it is also possible that the fact that the BTC price has largely already more than doubled over the past 6 months so several of the less efficient miners will still be able to continue to survive, including if the BTC price continues to go up, then the rising of the BTC price will end up contributing towards less efficient miners to continue to survive when they might have been forced out of business if the BTC price had not gone up as much.
Another simultaneous mining dynamic is the ongoing and persistent rising of the difficulty level and the amount of hashpower that has to come into play in order to be able to have some chances of winning some blocks, which surely raises the costs of operating miners and also there likely are some real world dynamics that have to do with ongoingly seeking out low energy costs and potentially jurisdictions that are not hostile towards mining in terms of either putting more costs on miners or even potentially not honoring their property rights so putting their equipment and even their freedom at risk if they were to choose to operate in certain jurisdictions as opposed to other jurisdictions.
The opportunity for bitcoin's price to reach $100k is very close and I believe that price target can be achieved in the middle of the year or after the halving occurs, but it is possible that it can be achieved before the halving too if for example the current correction occurs, because bitcoin has not experienced a significant correction after the market increase from the beginning last February, so make sure you wait for lower prices to start investing in your portfolio.
I disagree with you on this and I think waiting for a lower price has not been the best advice unless you are a trader and not an investor, because you might wait and missed out of buying opportunity and you can't determine how much low or high is going to be , you can be waiting for a lower price and Bitcoin will surg higher and never come back to that very price you saw it, but with your dca strategy you don't wait for any lower price rather you buy with a fixed amount of money at different intervals either weekly or monthly irrespective of the price point and as well make an arrangement to buy wholesomely or
lump sum buying when ever the price is lower which gives you an opportunity of buying more Bitcoin at a lower price.
You are correct that it is not a good practice to wait for down before up, when down may or may not end up happening.. sure it might happen, but it might not.. so therefore, erep's proclamation is erroneous when he is asserting that bitcoin has high chances of correcting merely because it had gone up a lot in recent times.
I do find it problematic for members, such as you Tmoonz, to continue to conflate the terms of lump sum buying and buying on dips, since there are meaningful differences in the concepts and the practices and the reasons why someone might lump sum invest versus buying on dips... In other words, there is no need to refer to some form of buying on dips as lump sum merely since you might be buying more BTC than what you would usually buy...
The idea of lump sum is having some amount of BTC that you are holding right now (whether you got it from surprise source or you made such amount available to you by moving it from some other location or if you take out a loan), and you decide right now in regards to how much of that amount that you are going to invest right now with that amount that is currently available to you... so that amount that you would use to buy right now is not necessarily connected with whether or not there is a dip, but instead connected with your own decision regarding how much of that amount that is available right now that you want to use to buy BTC right now in order to prepare for UP that may or may not end up happening.
Anyhow, the main thing I am continuing to suggest is that lump sum and buying on dips is different.