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I do not think we have any data that would enable making such estimates in any way reasonable. So entering into such a bet would be pure gambling. Pure gambling. I doubt it. If you are willing to take the other side of the bet, then I am more than willing to enter into such bet... meaning that if you think that we are not going to have any daily trade volume average lower than the November 9, 2021 amount, then I am more than willing to enter into such a bet since I believe my odds of winning are way greater than 50/50.. and yeah, I don't know the outcome of such bet, but I am more than willing to take it, and sure you might consider it to be gambling. I don't.
However, as you say your unwilligness to bet based on your own probabilities suggests that you actually think the same.
I said that I am not going to give 90/10 odds, but I m,ight be willing to give somewhere between 50/50 odds and 90/10 odds... We would have to figure out the number, if you were wanting to negotiate such a bet.. Whether we were to classify what we are doing as gambling or not.. I doubt that it matters too much.. we would just have to figure out the terms in which I would be willing to take one side of the bet and you take the other side of the bet... I doubt it is pure speculation and/or chance as you seem to be suggesting it to be.. as if I were just throwing a dart at a wall.. yeah right..
I think there is more to it than probability of winning it is also a matter of stake vs potential reward. That's what makes people play the lottery, they know the chance of winning is infinitesimal, but the stake is small and the reward high.
Sure. I have no problem with that description, but I think that a proposed bet regarding how many days it takes for November 9, 2021 to get knocked off the 100 top days board seems to have a lot more abilities to figure out what either of us might be willing to bet, depending upon how far apart we might be in terms of our views.
Even if we differ in our views, yet if we are very close to assigning similar odds, but just one of us is on one side and the other one of us is on the other side, then that would end up not being bettable. We have to feel sufficiently different about the results..
And by the way, fuck the lottery. .I don't play that crap, and I don't recommend it either, even though it is quite a popular activity for folks..
I am not opposed to the existence of the lottery, but unless something changes in regards to what it is and how it is played, you are not too likely to catch me wasting my time with that nonsense in its current variations.
Don't get me wrong, there might be some times in which I do play some games of chance just for funzies, but I don't tend to spend a lot of time in any games that I consider to either be too much based on chance or too much against me.. I do like to play Black Jack, but sometimes the rules of the house will cause me to not want to play, so I have to perceive that the odds are at least somewhat close to 50/50 and that I have some chances of employing some skills to push the odds in my favor... or maybe also certain kinds of poker I might be willing to play, so long as I know the rules enough in order to attempt to figure out that I have decent chances of winning, including that my skills are at least somewhat competitive with other players at the table - to the extent that some of that might be knowable.
Accordingly at maybe 100 or 1000:1 I'd consider it ... say 0.001 to 1 BTC? Though I'm pretty sure I'd still lose!
I already said that I likely would not be willing to enter into any bet that would get even close to the 90/10 proclamation that I had made.. but yeah, there could be ways to frame a bet in terms of an amount that each side would end up having to pay that would be an attempt to reflect the odds.. and from my own perspective, in order to make a point about the claims being made, I doubt that there would be any need to create bets that would require the losing side to pay any more than 0.002 BTC or perhaps 0.003 BTC.. yet of course, folks are able to enter into whatever bet that they like in terms of amounts.. but I doubt that I am going to play any of the larger amount bets in order to make whatever point(s) that I might be wanting to make through any possible agreed-to bet. Also, there may need to be some escrow involved depending upon how any such bet might be framed.. .. but like for example, even with a bet that is attempting to describe 10/1 odds, for one side might be as high as 0.003 BTC, and then the other side might end up being 0.0003 BTC.. and such low amounts, might end up having to be locked into being a lightning network bet rather than locking into on-chain transactions.. unless we agree to onchain transactions that might end up having some high fee risks.. .based on some of the latest happenings (meaning high fees) with onchain fees.