BTC halving have historically proved to be a time for consecutive bullish run, that have always ended up in an ATH, due to the ATH experienced this year before the halving event questions have been asked about the market repeating an ATH after halving or not, investors are waiting for for the right time to buy and hodl some BTC the price of BTC after halving might be influenced by some current and potential macroeconomic problems and conditions such as elections in the USA and other economic powerhouses,
Other factors that can influence the volatility of BTC includes the arrival time of the ETF right before BTC halving event , when the supply is cut short, then the demand for it becomes more acceptable, the upcoming event especially the USA election might prove a major factor in getting another ATH in the price of BTC after the halving,
To be honest, I think that if Bitcoin ETF approval was announced months later after Bitcoin Halving, we would see a very decent bull market. Since it was announced before halving, we already saw ATH, so it's really hard to say what will happen after halving because one of the most triggering factor is already in the game. I think that we might see dump, as low as 50K and then rise again.
Overall, absolutely everything affects Bitcoin's price since it's not really hard to speculate. We already saw how influential Elon Musk's statements were on Bitcoin's price. Elections might affect Bitcoin's price if the upcoming president bans it, taxes it, supports it or does anything with it. If the new president doesn't touch it, I don't understand how elections would affect Bitcoin's price. Overall, there are many factors that affect it. We even saw how an accidentally posted tweet from SEC affected price within minutes.