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Looking on matches left, Arsenal has some difficult matches against Chelsea, Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United with most of left team opponent want to defend their position at Champion League spot place for Spurs and Manchester United want to reach UEFA Europe League ticket next season by finish on 5th or 6th standings position.
Let's not forget Aston Villa, who are currently placed 5th in the table with the same points as the Tottenham. Although experts don't give Villa much chances of winning (only 9%) it's still potentially a tough game for Arsenal.
I think Arsenal is almost guaranteed to lose some points in one of those 4 matches mentioned.
If I had to bet, I'd put my money on My City to win the ECL, as they have the easiest games left compared to Liverpool and Arsenal.