Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Top 20 days for Bitcoin
by
JayJuanGee
on 09/04/2024, 05:12:59 UTC
[edited out]
OK, so are you suggesting 10:1 (i.e. 0.01 to 0.001 BTC) or 4:1 (0.01 to 0.0025 BTC)?

As per my comments above and previously, I'm not sure this is a sensible bet on any terms, but maybe we can agree something.

I am not even sure if we understand each other enough to make a bet.. since I said that I would not be wanting to make any bet that merely reflects what I believe the odds to be in the event that someone else is proclaiming odds that I consider to be way outrageous as compared to my odds, so I would want to get surplus out of that.. so that is why I suggested the possibility of entering into a 100:1 bet (or was it 99 to 1, since you were proclaiming 1000:1 or 999:1... .. yet originally I said that I thought that it was 10:1 and now I am more in the ballpark of thinking that the odds are getting to be 4:1, but why would I enter a bet in which you got all the surplus especially since you are thinking the odds are 999 to 1?.. .. but yeah, if I say 99:1 and you say that all the surplus is on my end and I need to go back to 10:1.. since I would still be getting surplus since I really believe the odds to be closer to 4:1..

Anyhow, I would think that each of us would want to have surplus on each of our ends, since you would be more hesitant to enter into a bet that is closer to your true beliefs of 999 to 1, just like I am reluctant to enter into a bet that is closer to my current beliefs of 4:1.. .. which maybe in some sense I am admitting that they might be a bit higher than what I am tentatively thinking right now... . but yeah, we still may well have to describe it out or figure out numbers if we really were going to enter into a bet.. but you did move away from my real offer of 99:1 and suggest the other two possibilities of 10:1 or 4:1 which surely seems like you are wanting to suck all of the surplus value on my end, which is causing it to be unbettable.. .. so I had ONLY proposed possibly  considering 99:1.. while at the same time, there could be some [potential to negotiate another set of odds, but I had not proposed those lower odds (or is it higher odds that you are wanting to gravitate towards so that you seem to want to get more surplus value out of the situation.