Gosh another wall of text to wade through. Have you ever thought about the advantages of a bit of brevity?
Key points:
yet originally I said that I thought that it was 10:1 and now I am more in the ballpark of thinking that the odds are getting to be 4:1, but why would I enter a bet in which you got all the surplus especially since you are thinking the odds are 999 to 1?
Going from 1000:1 to 100:1 is a ten-fold difference.
Going from 4:1 to 100:1 is a 25-fold difference.
So the majority of the "surplus" is on your side.
About 63:1 would put it in the middle.
On the other hand the guy who believes that the odds are less than 1/1000, then he also considers the bet to be good since it is almost like free money since he considers that there is less than 1 time out of 1,000 that he would not end up winning the bet. I am not sure what makes it so crazy that no one would enter into such bets if that is what they actually believe and they are willing to stand behind it.. It may just be a matter of the amount that ends up getting bet. .. I mean would you really want to put a whole BTC at risk so that you might be able to win .01 BTC? I did not even say that I would bet that amount, but I might allow you to put up 0.01 BTC if you are wanting to try to win 0.0001 BTC.. I think that would be 100 to 1 odds..
I have already said I don't think it is a good bet for either party since I don't think we have sufficient meaningful data to properly assess the risk.
I think when push comes to shove, you would not even be willing to stand behind your own probabilities of 1000 to 1
Any more than you are willing to stand behind your odds of 4:1?
Of course the BTC price goes up and down all the time, and surely $2,500 does not mean as much in these upper $60k prices as it did when we were in the $6k prices.
Correct but irrelevant to the point I was making. When we are less than $2.5k above the price point we are discussing, it means rather a lot.
It could go up before it goes down too..
Also correct but also irrelevant for the same reason.
Already sufficiently explained to the extent that any of the nuances even matter in the whole scheme of things.. The ONLY time that the assignment of odds might matter would be if there might be some action that is being considered around the assignment of such odds... so right now I am floating between 1/4 and 1/10 and you are supposedly higher than 1/1,000 even though you are unwilling to enter a 1/100 bet.. so it probably shows that you are not as convicted as you are making it out that you are... to the extent that any of it even matters...especially if neither of us is planning to act upon it.. at least we have not figured out some kind of an agreeable action point, yet.
OK, so you are just guessing, you have no logic?
Since you seem so keen on a bet how about this?
We use odds of 100:1, outline terms as follows:
1. tertius993 will wager 0.01BTC to be paid to JayJuanGee if tertius993 loses
2. JayJuanGee will wager 0.0001BTC to be paid to Dirtykeyboard* if JayJuanGee loses
3. tertius993 will win if on at least one day in the next 78 days the volume weighted average USD price on Bitstamp (as reported in Dirtykeyboard's daily update to this thread) is less than $67,483.
4. JayJuanGee will win if for the next 80 consecutive days the volume weighted average USD price on Bitstamp (as reported in Dirtykeyboard's daily update to this thread) will not be less than $67,483
5. If Dirtykeyboard stops updating the thread before the 78 days are up, the bet will be void.
6. If the lowest volume weighted average USD price reported in the next 78 days is EXACTLY $67,483 the bet will be void.
7. The "next 78 days" means the period from today up to and including 27 June 2024.
* as a thank you for the updates to the thread
I think I have calculated the number of days correctly but happy to be corrected on that.
If you agree copy the terms into a new post with just the terms and say you agree, I will then quote and agree your post.
If you want to change anything propose your amendments and we can take it from there.