franky1,
I am not sure about the reporting harassment policies here.
If you continue to do ad hominem, attacking my professional background, my integrity, or other personal attacks I will report you. it is obvious to anybody that you are a troll and have zero understanding or knowledge about these subjects. It is not even worth answering you or addressing any of the things you are saying besides telling you that I would not tolerate personal attacks so if this forum allows me to report this behavior I will.
You even follow me from post to post just to harass me. If you want to have a scientific discussion or you want to ask questions I will answer them but again stop the personal attacks. This is the last time I ask nicely. Thank you.
Yeah franky1 can be a bit of a jerk sometimes, but I did not see any personal attacks that go beyond mostly attempting to beat you up substantively, and yeah maybe franky1 is wrong or he goes overboard from time to time, but he had raised some decent arguments as well..
You (BTCdragosfera) did not even chime into the thread until after franky had already posted a couple of times, and fillippone posted the OP in the first place, so it is not even your thread... not that it matters very much when this had been established as a regular thread rather than a self-moderated thread.
If you want your own thread that is not open to debate (or at least you can delete anyone who you believe is perverting your message), then maybe this should have been authored by you as a self-moderated topic.
Yeah, sure Fillippone could have created this as a self-moderated thread, and then as the owner of this thread, he could have deleted whatever responsive posts that he wants.. .. but he did not... .. and I suspect that fillipponne had made this as an open topic... so that members could chime in and express their opinions.
Surely when it comes to markets, there is likely more going on than just pure math... so there is going to be a bit of a problem for anyone trying to model out bitcoin's price performance and/or adoption in pure mathematical ways.. even if you might be able to model out past performance to show how we get to the present, then what about the future? I doubt that bitcoin's price performance is going to fall into a pure mathematically predicted curve even if you think you got all the numbers correct, and even though sure your numbers and your curves might well work for a while, but it is going to need to be coordinated from time to time to real world data, too.
Adoption is important because it brings new people and new capital in the market. With time, bigger adoption, the market will have more people, from investors to speculators and traders, they all contribute to bigger trading volume in the market. With bigger trading volume, big investors have one more reason to join it because they will have less trouble to enter and exit the market with big capital.
Trading and investment is also speculation, because Bitcoin is a speculative asset. The difference is only in time preferences.
And I wasn't talking about market adoption, I was talking about other use case adoption, like payments or store of value. Those other uses are so low that they don't have influence on the price.
I agree about zero-sum game. It is true for traditional markets like stock market too.
Stock market is not a zero sum, because companies manufacture goods and provide services - they create something valuable for society and a lot of people benefit from it. So with stocks you can get dividends, but with Bitcoin you can only get profit if someone buys it.
Bitcoin is a paradigm shifting technology that brings a lot of new innovations to the world, so it would be problematic to be attempting to overly-simplify bitcoin as if it were not adding additional value to the world.
Sure, from time to time, bitcoin is going to appear as if it is nothing more than a speculative stock, yet you seem to be missing something if you are pigeonholing bitcoin in that kind of a way.
I could not exactly figure out what BIG beef there is with Plan B's model which has some similar dynamics as the Powerlaw theories, and yeah, I don't claim to know the math exactly, yet I still would say fuck the math to the extent to which there are attempts to try to be precise in regards to how fast various aspects of bitcoin's growth is taking place. Yeah, sure, no problem some of that can be attempted to be modeled out and captured in math, but it also ONLY goes so far, even if we might be considering the [ur=https://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/the-seven-network-effects-of-bitcoin/l]seven network effects that Trace Mayer outlined in 2014/2015-ish[/url].