For Munich vs Madrid, in my opinion, it is very difficult to predict who will be in the final, because they are the same as their best performance, so at least Munich must win at their own home even though the score is close. There is no possibility that Madrid will respond with a much bigger score at their own home. What you said is correct, for the Dortmund vs PSG match, PSG has a much greater chance of qualifying for the final.
In my opinion, Bayern München is not a more difficult opponent than Manchester City. Bayern were much stronger last year or the previous years, but they have a slightly weaker squad this season. They don't have any scary players other than Kane. Real, on the other hand, has a rich offensive line with players such as Vinicius, Rodrygo and Bellingham. It's a difficult matchup to predict, but I think Real is ahead by a small margin. On the other hand, Bayern, who lost the Bundesliga, will give everything for CL trophy.