My logic is that
1. We will see a drop in the hash rate once the halving occurs due to mining being unprofitable for inefficient miners, this will lead to longer block times until the difficulty is adjusted 4 days later. Longer block times means people paying higher fees to get into the next block.
Not when the Bitcoin fees are insanely high at the moment. The happiest people are the miners and from what I have seen, the mining rewards have been way higher so far as compared to a few days before the halving. So far, despite the halving of the subsidy, the generated transaction fees have filled in the gap and absorbed the expected shock for the miners.