You don't seem to know how to read that website. Essentially BTC's current spot price is almost double the 200-WMA, at 93.46% higher than the 200-WMA. Spot price $65,086. 200-WMA $33,642
I know how to read this graph. I made a mistake while writing it up. I should have write it that way,
bitcoin spot price is $65k but 200 WMA is still very much down compared to spot price. I think that's the right way to write and I am still open for critics.
Hopefully, you know now, because that was a pretty BIG misrepresentation to say that BTC price was below the 200-WMA, when the exact opposite was true, and the BTC spot price is in the ballpark of 2x higher than the 200-WMA, which surely is not a bad place to be.. it is not overly high and it is not overly low.... yet the current BTC spot price is in the process of ongoingly pull up the 200-WMA.. at around $38 per day currently, and if the $38 per day were to continue at the same daily rate for the next year, then we would end up with about a 40% increase in the 200-WMA over the coming year.. however, one of the safe things about using the 200-WMA as a measure is that it is a lagging indicator.. even while it gives you some sense of long term trends and potential sustainability. There are no guarantees that the 200-WMA will continue to go up, but so far the lowest its rate of going up has gotten down to right around 20% annualized for the period of June 2022 until October 2023, and that has been its lowest upwardly inclined rate so far in bitcoin's life.
The 200-WMA shows what the average price for bitcoin was over the last 4 years, which is mostly considered a bottom, which means spot price can go down to that price, which would be nearly a 50% price correction from the current price.
There were not very many periods in which BTC spot price was below the 200-WMA; however, it happened quite a bit between about June 2022 and October 2023. The 200-WMA went up from about $22k to $28k during that period of time, but the spot BTC price spent quite a bit of time below the 200-WMA.. which was an unsual time in BTC's price history, so it shows that the bottom price can sometimes be breached.
So what does June 2022 to Oct 2023 period tells us?
It shows a bit of an unnormaly low period for BTC prices when measured using that kind of a 4 year average price, and we can see from the history that the BTC price had never gone below the 200-WMA, except for short spikes.. but during that June 2022 to October 2023 period the BTC price got as low as 35% below the 200-WMA for a short period at the peak of its lowest point.
Is that a good time to accumulate more Bitcoins?
Sure.. it could tell us to accumulate more and not to sell, and surely it is better to attempt to be ahead of these kinds of points so that you are not feeling desperate during times in which the BTC price is bouncing within ranges that are historically low.
We cannot completely know what to do, even though we can attempt to try to use history to our advantage, and hope that we are not choosing wrong in terms of how much we are investing or if we choose to change our level of aggressiveness based on any of the moving average indicators, including the 200-WMA.
Of course it's not an ideal period if you are looking to sell few of your coins, better HODL and wait for spot price to go above 200 WMA. IMO, such periods are good time to gather more Bitcoins since the bottom price is breached.
That seems to be the correct conclusion, so long as bitcoin continues to perform.. and surely we have a lot of craziness in recent times with what seems to be ongoing attacks on the ability of normal folks to use bitcoin for transacting, and including the ongoing flow of money into the bitcoin spot ETFs. It is hard to say how much bitcoin's reputation and investment case can get damaged when so much money seems to be getting put into crappy aspects that are questionable whether anyone is making money in such process of keeping the onchain fees so persistently high, so it is costing those inscription/ordinal generating folks a lot of money to keep using the bitocoin blockchain in such way that increased just a couple of days ago at the time of the halvening with the introduction of Runes... .. so many folks are still watching how long the fees are going to stay so high and will there still be opportunities for the blockchain to be used for relatively normal transactions.. as I had many times been mentioning to members that they need to be careful in terms of their generating smaller UTXOs that might come unusable during times like this.. and so then there is either a need to wait until the fees come back down (and surely they should), or maybe figuring out other ways to transact with bitcoin, which might be acceptable, yet less preferable if many of us are forced into having to use solutions that overly rely upon 3rd parties in the custody or transacting of our coins..