So far in bitcoin's history, it has ONLY gone down below the 200-WMA the one time (between June 2022 and October 2023), at least for sustainable periods of time, so there surely may well be quite a bit of value to buy all the way down, because you cannot really know how far the BTC price is going to correct back down or how close it might get to the 200-WMA or if it might go below the 200-WMA again.
My tentative current expectation is that the BTC price will not go below 20% above the 200-WMA for the next 18 months or so, and sure I could be wrong in that expectation, but that is currently how I am considering the matter, absent some facts changing, and there have been so many times that I have been wrong in various tentative expectations that I have in regards to bitcoin's price movement - and so in that sense I don't make any kinds of meaningful changes in my own strategies, and/or BIG bets based on various tentative expectations that I form from time to time.
Thanks for pointing out that only once so far we have seen Bitcoin spot price going down below 200-WMA. In September 2015, BTC price and 200-WMA came close of each other but still spot price remain ahead.
Of course, over the years, there have been various spikes of the BTC spot price below the 200-WMA that were short-lived, yet the period of June 2022 to October 2023 had several times in which the BTC price was quite a bit below the 200-WMA, yet the 200-WMA did continue to move up during that period at an annual rate of about 20%. You can look at the specific differences between the BTC spot price and the 200-WMA on any particular date
at this website.
Of course we can speculate about what lies ahead as nobody is sure about price of Bitcoin. Right now there is so much gap between Bitcoin spot price and 200-WMA that you can safely predict that the BTC price will not go below 20% above the 200-WMA for the next 18 months or so
I am just providing my own base case scenario, so of course, I would not suggest that my base case scenario is anywhere close to guaranteed, but I am thinking that the base case scenario of the BTC spot price staying above the 200-WMA for the next 18 months is the most likely out of any of the possible scenarios based on facts currently known... ... and sure of course price trends can change suddenly and maybe even for little to no reason, and also there can be irrational spikes and black swan events that end up invalidating the base case scenario that I am currently anticipating.
My fuck you status chart also lists the historical 200-WMA's in 6 month increments, and I am anticipating to update that chart in early June, so currently, the 200-WMA is out performing my anticipated 16% (32% annualized) performance by 5% (10% annualized), is it appears that we are going to experience close to a 21% (42% annualized) increase in the 200-WMA by May 31st..... You can also see that in that fuck you status chart, I attempt to project out the increase in the 200-WMA until 2074 - and surely I am projecting out a diminishing rate of increase, yet with anything related to the future, there can be factors that contribute towards the results playing out differently from the projection... including ongoing concerns that many of us might have in the direction of the various ongoing attacks related to bitcoin self-custody.. .which from my perspective is likely to create a lot of scoff law and underground operations - which would not be so bullish in regards to bitcoin's short-to-medium term price.