Look. The bet is for 30 days. Not 90. 90 is just a way for Rpietila to try to hedge his bet. The guy is deathly afraid of losing. In 90 days we could retest 270 and be back above 500.
In fact, if we are no longer in a bear market it matters not if its 30 days or 90 days or 4 years, as we will not see 435. However, if are bear, opposite to what Rpietila suggests, then 30 days gives me a chance to prove him wrong and win the bet.
90 days I will not do. There's no sport in a bet where there is 90%+ chance of a tie and 8% in losing.
30 days is fair.
No one is going to manipulate the market. I am assuming a certain amount of honor here.
Can Rpietila also agree to real risk and honor? We will find out. I expect him to make excuses and not join the bet.
+1
At 30 days the bet is already at a real risk of ending in a tie. At 90 days, under the original conditions, that's almost guaranteed.
The way I see it, this bet is about making a rather strong, unconditional statement in the middle of a crucial time for the market. At 30 days, it does that just fine.
EDIT: I obviously have no say in this, it's not my bet. But since this is discussed in a public place, you should expect it to be discussed.