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To me, it seems that you are not wrong in any of your specific assessments, yet I personally do not even feel that I know enough about how to get into specifics instead of just potentially having some ballpark ideas regarding known unknowns and unknown unknowns, and sure you may well be listing some aspect of known knowns- yet the world of probabilities have a lot of various kinds of ways of assigning percentages that may well end up having a certain amount of subjective elements that each of us have to account for when making our own assessments regarding how we are going to invest into bitcoin and also to prepare ourselves for various negative scenarios as well as the positive scenarios.
Someone who has already invested into BTC for a while (like myself) may well end up engaging in various kinds of hedging in terms of selling some of our stash from time to time, whether we do it in time-based ways or we do it in price-based ways.
The overwhelming majority of the world, perhaps even close to 99%, do not have enough exposure to bitcoin since they most of them do not even own any coin at all... and yeah, maybe 1-2% of the world own some small amount of BTC (or even they are involved in shitcoins and thinking that they have enough BTC exposure).
So I am suggesting that even if some of the various negative scenarios are out there and I am not even going into specifics of them, that still does not mean that people generally have enough BTC.. and most people need to get the fuck off of zero... surely there are some folks who invest into bitcoin, and they do not have very much value, so they are continuing to buy BTC as if it were to be guaranteed to be going up, and so that seems to be problematic in the sense that anyone who has a very bullish outlook on BTC, should still be careful about assuming that nothing but UP is guaranteed.. or they might concede that there is UP and DOWN in the short term, but in the long term, no matter what UP is guaranteed.. which also is not true..
In the end people can do what they like, and who cares about my various repetitions that it is good to keep in mind the negative scenarios too, even if you are mostly preparing for the positive scenarios.. but at the same time, does anyone want to be in the street if they do not have other resources besides being maniacally focused on investing into bitcoin and ONLY bitcoin?
Even with myself, I will admit that I likely have around 80%-ish or more in bitcoin as compared with other assets, yet my bitcoin got to more than 80% of my total investment portfolio holdings based its price appreciation and not due to my investing that much.. since when I got into bitcoin I only got up to around 13.5%-ish invested into bitcoin, and the rest of my investment portfolio could sustain me if bitcoin wer to go to zero.. Yet, bitcoin ended up outperform all of the other assets, and sure those other assets may have gone up around 70-80% in the past 10 years, while bitcoin went up around 68x.. .. so sure maybe my exposure to bitcoin could have had been even higher than more than 80%.. but even if it were to go to zero, those other assets can still support me... so I have investments in places other than just having everything in bitcoin.
I agree. It's naive to believe in any of the extremes, like Buffett who says bitcoin will go down to zero while others say there is only one way up towards a million USD. It might even be that the set of risks bitcoin is exposed to is more complex than the set of risks of any other asset. What makes bitcoin resilient may also go hand in hand with additional risk exposure. So I agree with you that pinning risks down in concrete terms is clearly impossible. I was just throwing out some of my thoughts, but there is no way to verify whether my thoughts carry value unless they materialize one day, which I don't hope of course.
Shitcoin exposure in hopes of being "kind of" invested into bitcoin is of course a fallacy. But not enough people understand the security model bitcoin is based on. That doesn't mean they won't be successful if they get the chance and sell in the right moment, but the most promising long term horse to bet on is still bitcoin. We have seen that with government attacks on coins that have development teams and then they got cracked down on because they were labeled a security and so on and so forth.
Sure, if someone is sufficiently well invested in bitcoin in regards to their own requirements or possibilities, then divesting is not necessarily a wrong idea. This leads me to those early days whales who held like 50k or 100k BTC, perhaps bought for cents on the dollar. If we think in percentage terms, even if you believe that the BTC price will go to 20k, would it still be rational in your opinion to not sell any all the way up to a price of 20k USD? I think someone who bought loads and loads for cents or maybe 10 dollars or 50 dollars, the percentage return got to a point that it would be very naive to not sell some.
I made the mistake that I sold a lot far too early because percentage wise it felt to be the right thing, I would even say mandatory because what in the freaking world gives you 1000% in no time? Now we are at a point where these insane rewards in no time are not realistic anymore, or they have never been realistic, but happened.
But at the same time I think bitcoin is still an amazing asset to acquire because other assets, shares and real estate can quickly get into trouble, too. Those who bought Tesla at an all time high now lost over 50% of their money. The tech titles are doing well these days, but if people got the timing wrong, they could have lose almost 70% if they bought Facebook by the end of 2021.
I think having a plan and being willing to execute it can be extremely helpful. This doesn't mean new information shouldn't be taken into account, perhaps altering the plan. But having one at all can't hurt.