The best thing you can do is to check the mempool by yourself and estimating the required fee rate by analyzing that. To do so, you can use
jochen hoenicke's website.
It's still guesswork. The only difference is the source you are using to guess and estimate the fees. I agree with you that checking Hoenicke's mempool is the better choice, but Mempool.space is the best alternative I know of for people who wish to avoid manual analysis and just go with the rates they see on the site, depending on their confirmation priority.