Its huge gamble did by Bayern Munich management when appointing Vincent Kompany, if first season get failure I doubt he will stay until his contract over after getting two years contract.
Yes actually it's very easy to answer just look at how many people win at gambling and how many become rich from gambling, I think it's a very small percentage of the money that has been lost, gambling sites know that they build their sites for entertainment for people rich people but poor people try their luck and want to get rich by gambling, even though it is not a good place to make money because gambling sites are supposed to be entertainment places for rich gamblers who want to spend their money to have fun.
Everyone who loses money in a casino is of course much more than those who win, let's say the percentage of those who lose is around 80%, while those who win are 20%, but that doesn't mean that 20% doesn't seem like a lot, sometimes the 19% of gamblers who are given winnings are greedy people. When you win, you don't leave the casino, but instead you continue playing and in the end the winning money runs out again, that's why you have to be able to control yourself when you gamble, at least know when to gamble and know when to stop gambling.