Maybe that's true and I might agree on this too. Namely, friendly matches cannot be the main reference for seeing which team will ultimately be the favorite. More serious matches will start at the start of the competition and not in friendlies. Friendly matches are sometimes made to test each other's strengths and test several strategies between each team. And usually some information will be gathered from friendly matches. But sometimes a team will not show their true quality in friendly matches. So the opposing team will not be able to analyze anything easily. France and England both have great squad depth. And I have no doubts about their quality either. But I probably can't say either of them is the closest to winning the title. Because this time I even saw that Portugal, which also has many quality players, could be one of the candidates. Or maybe it all depends on which team we like more.
That is because teams are just not caring. This is basically one of the reasons why that new tournament thing started, what was it called, nations league or something? That silly tournament started so that national teams would basically have a friendly, like during the season or so, in order to give them a chance. All in all, I think teams care more about the games that matter the most.
However, I still think that a lot of teams are looking like they are going to be bigger shocks than we expect, some good teams playing badly and some bad teams playing well is not out of question yet. This means that as long as they keep trusting who they have, then things may change and we could have results that are unexpected, it is not unheard of.