subject does NOT necessarily need to be complicated with odds and a whole lot of various ambiguous terms.
Now you are childish.
Poker players raise if they have 52/48 but not if it is 48/52.
I am calculating 90% odds for the certain outcome. If you think the odds are 95%, you should bet with me for +EV.
50% is obviously not same as 90%.
I am tired of writing to people who don't know about betting enough to justify opening their mouth but nevertheless do it.
So no bets here. The other thread will perhaps develop into a probability machine where you will always be able to check if your feeling corresponds with the majority, and bet with the ones who think the opposite.
I agree with you, the price is not going to "crash" to 400's level, however I can sense fear in your posts, I remember once you telling us that you don't do bets because it is illegal in your country and a past experience you had when someone reported you to authorities. but here you are now betting "again" I find it hard to believe or trust you anymore.
I can sense fear on this thread.....this will be my last post in this thread, I will still post in this forum occasionally if there is a need, but most likely not on the speculation forum....
good luck to all of you.