Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
rpietila
on 27/04/2014, 11:24:48 UTC
Trying to keep it short:

crank down the amount of the bet, if the amount bothers you

If the bet is +EV for me, I try to bet as much as possible, bounded by the Kelly formula of course. If it is -EV, I don't bet anything.

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the money should just be a side issue, just to give assurance that you are willing to put some skin in the game

No thanks. I bet to win, if at all.

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Windjc would be willing to give you some odds.

Too late. He had ample time.

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you, Rpietila, used the word "never" which implies that you think 100%, so you should be more than willing to bet 50% odds when you make such a statement.

"never" is part of the event clause: ( P("bitcoin will never go to 435") = X% ).

Never was it indicated that X equals 0%.