Re: Ordinals and other non-monetary "use cases" as miner reward on 2140+
⭐ Merited by Knight Hider (1)
Well, first let's see the current blocks (post-2024 halving), and see if we already can draw some conclusions.
If we take out the fee spike near the halving and the OKX spike, then most of the time the fees are hovering around 10% of the total block reward in both waves when Runes cluttered the network (including subsidy and fees), and 5% in low-fee phases (when no such event occurs).
Source: bitbo (blockchain.info charts currently don't work for me)
That means that if block subsidy was cut off completely, then the hashrate would probably drop by 90 to 95%, from currently around 600 Eh/s to perhaps 50-70 Eh/s. You may say that's dramatic, but that is approximately the hashrate Bitcoin had in 2018/19 (see this chart), and Bitcoin was considered safe at this time too.
This would be basically the situation in 2140 if the Bitcoin price was the same than today (65-70k) and the transaction activity was the same too.
@vjudeu's comments about testnet would indicate something very similar: even on testnet there's a significant hashrate even if there's no real block reward.
However I think there is perhaps a problem: mining difficulty could become more volatile, because in bear markets usually transaction rate drops and thus the fees drop too. What I think will happen is however what already today happens when there's an upcoming halving: miners diversify their operations, for example offering services to AI and cloud companies, and server colocation.So miners would find a way to survive - and take into account this is a very gradual process. Hashrate would probably however then get lower in bear markets. But the hope is of course that Bitcoin's volatility will be much lower at that time, as it will be an established financial asset.
I believe in the future merged-mined sidechain rewards could become a significant income for miners. That's also what some people like Paul Sztorc (who proposed Drivechain, an interesting sidechain mechanism) wrote.
As for tokens like Ordinals/Runes I think other blockchains will be more attractive. Take into account that Ordinals/Runes were/are mostly a fad phenomenon, at least on Bitcoin - they came from the idea to "have an NFT on the OG blockchain". It is very unlikely that this fad will continue for more than 100 years ...
If we take out the fee spike near the halving and the OKX spike, then most of the time the fees are hovering around 10% of the total block reward in both waves when Runes cluttered the network (including subsidy and fees), and 5% in low-fee phases (when no such event occurs).
Source: bitbo (blockchain.info charts currently don't work for me)
That means that if block subsidy was cut off completely, then the hashrate would probably drop by 90 to 95%, from currently around 600 Eh/s to perhaps 50-70 Eh/s. You may say that's dramatic, but that is approximately the hashrate Bitcoin had in 2018/19 (see this chart), and Bitcoin was considered safe at this time too.
This would be basically the situation in 2140 if the Bitcoin price was the same than today (65-70k) and the transaction activity was the same too.
@vjudeu's comments about testnet would indicate something very similar: even on testnet there's a significant hashrate even if there's no real block reward.
However I think there is perhaps a problem: mining difficulty could become more volatile, because in bear markets usually transaction rate drops and thus the fees drop too. What I think will happen is however what already today happens when there's an upcoming halving: miners diversify their operations, for example offering services to AI and cloud companies, and server colocation.So miners would find a way to survive - and take into account this is a very gradual process. Hashrate would probably however then get lower in bear markets. But the hope is of course that Bitcoin's volatility will be much lower at that time, as it will be an established financial asset.
I believe in the future merged-mined sidechain rewards could become a significant income for miners. That's also what some people like Paul Sztorc (who proposed Drivechain, an interesting sidechain mechanism) wrote.
As for tokens like Ordinals/Runes I think other blockchains will be more attractive. Take into account that Ordinals/Runes were/are mostly a fad phenomenon, at least on Bitcoin - they came from the idea to "have an NFT on the OG blockchain". It is very unlikely that this fad will continue for more than 100 years ...