one thing I discovered recently is that those who use the DCA method in accumulating Bitcoin but still wait for the dip usually don't accumulate as many as those who are using the DCA method of accumulation and don't think about the dip.
I disagree with your statement because those investors who are accumulating bitcoin with the DCA strategy and also buying the dip will always accumulate more bitcoin than the investors who are only using the DCA strategy to accumulate bitcoin. Just because they are waiting for the dip doesn't mean they will stop accumulating bitcoin with the DCA strategy; they will continue to accumulate bitcoin with the DCA strategy. They have already kept the money to use to buy the dip; they are just waiting for the dip to happen so they can buy bitcoin at a low price.
Both of you can be wrong somehow because there is no certainty in either of the scenarios described. Someone using the DCA method only will not always have more Bitcoin neither will someone using a combined DCA method and buying the dips, it is always depend on the market condition and the interval of time the assessment is made. Let us assume both investors A a B have $10k to inject in Bitcoin within one year or a couple of months. Investor A decided to use the DCA method only and divided the funds into equal parts to suit the duration. While invest B decide to invest 50% through the DCA and the remaining 50% via buying the dips. What will determine the outcome of both investment is generally the market condition.
- If the market is continuously bearish, there are higher chances that investor B that uses the combined method would not have invested all the funds within that duration because he will invest part when it dips, thereafter keep some parts for further dips and will always have some parts not yet invested as the market continue to declined and if by chance he chose a limit and invested all the funds and the mark continue further down, investor A that put bigger amount in DCA method will get more Bitcoin at lower prices.
- If the market is continuously bullish, it is even worse because investor B that is using the combine method will not invest much of the funds since he might be waiting for dips whil the market continue to climb. Meanwhile investor A that uses the DCA only will continue to buy as the market continues until all the funds are invested within the duration
- If there is a transitional market in which market moves from bullish to bearish or vice versa, then it becomes a kind of obvious that investor B that uses a combined method might succeed in getting more Bitcoin that investor A that use only the DCA method.
Above are the reason I said both of you can be wrong because there is never certainty in the positions both of you have taken in that discussion.
I get your point and you are also right, but what I was trying to drive at was that waiting for dip before investing is a wrong approach what if the dip never happens you just waited in vain and what if it happens but didn't go that dip so we should consider all this and for those who wants to hodl for long term there's no point waiting for the dip before investing.
The best is using the DCA method and keep accumulating whether or not is in dip or is not, one should not focus only on the dip when it comes to bitcoin investment.