Every airdrop is usually seen as a child’s play until when proven otherwise and have a strong backing to show that they don’t engage in such acts. Your instinct about it is normal as any other person in this your position will do.
Those people most likely just got lucky as they took a big risk and that risk paid off but note that not everything is worth the risk. You are the one to decide whether a project should be looked at or not and you should only depend on your own instincts and research because there is no sure way to check if a project will be good or not early on.
Notcoin is now being held by investors that are not looking for short term possibilities of notcoin but what they stand to get in several years to come after their investment now.
It seems to be doing very well now as we keep seeing an increase of players. If they explore more options to add into their project then I can see a potential growth.