subject does NOT necessarily need to be complicated with odds and a whole lot of various ambiguous terms.
Now you are childish.
Poker players raise if they have 52/48 but not if it is 48/52.
I am calculating 90% odds for the certain outcome. If you think the odds are 95%, you should bet with me for +EV.
50% is obviously not same as 90%.
I am tired of writing to people who don't know about betting enough to justify opening their mouth but nevertheless do it.
So no bets here. The other thread will perhaps develop into a probability machine where you will always be able to check if your feeling corresponds with the majority, and bet with the ones who think the opposite.
Tail firmly tucked between your legs. As was to be expected when someone calls you out on your many bluffs.
I bet it'd be fun to play poker against you.
Some basics if you want to use the exponential trendline, or contend against its use. Two things must be observed:
[same old drivel as always]
Will you, for fuck's sake, let go already of your harebrained attempt to shoehorn a log-linear regression based trendline into short-to-mid-term trading advice?
Get it into your head: If (for whatever independent reasons) we will stay below that trendline long enough, it will look substantially different from the one you constructed right now. Happened in 2011, might happen again in 2014. Your "advice" of buying because we are currently below it is based on wishful thinking and extremely biased interpretation of the data.
But I waste my breath here. You made it abundantly clear over the years that you choose a good snake oil sales talk over objectivity any time of the day.