I'm not so skeptical about Atlético's chances, as we see with a successful draw even Dortmund can reach the final. Or if you look back, even Chelsea can take the title (at the same time taking only 4th place with 67 points in the Premier League). Many teams have a chance, but in the case of Atlético, first of all, it is not clear to me how long Simeone plans to stay there. It is obvious that the team has been deteriorating for several seasons in a row. Does he have any ideas to change something? He's been coaching Atlético for so long that I don't know how to answer this question.
Atletico's development tends to be slower because they seem to be gradually getting their best performance which makes them not to be underestimated.
In some seasons we can always see Atletico even look not like a big club at the beginning of the season but when it comes to mid-season even until the end of the season they always get stronger and stronger both in terms of defense and attack. That's what makes them a little more special because they always get their own proportion and share in every competition they run.
Indeed, something like this is not enough to make them one of the championship candidates especially for the Champions League but on the other hand they will always be troublesome in every season.
If I'm honest, I don't really like Simeone's scheme like this but this is what Atletico have always done in the last few seasons, especially after they managed to get the La Liga trophy in the 2020 season.