Re: Ordinals and other non-monetary "use cases" as miner reward on 2140+
@stompix: Ok, thanks for clarifications. The >10 was referred to the approximate 1-week average of daily hashrate, not diff adjustments.
Difficulty adjustments is indeed a better metric than daily hashrate. But difficulty until now fell only 5.1% since the maximum in April according to Coinwarz (88.1 T to 83.7 T). I guess it will fall a bit lower in the next adjustment but I'm still not convinced it will get lower than -15 or -20% from the pre-halving maximum.
Again, let's see
What I however don't understand is why you think that this time it's different to previous halvings and recovery will not occur or be slower than in 2016 and 2020.
If we look at the 2024 halving from a reward perspective, it was less devastating for miner income than 2016 and 2020, because the reward is already so low that transaction fees are increasing their share, so it's no more a 50% income reduction but more close to 40-45%.
But let's explorer the possibilities a bit. One argument could be the stagnant price evolution since April, but a strong counter-argument is just 2016, when the post-halving price evolution was stagnant for a long time, basically until November/December, but hashrate/difficulty recovery was very fast. In 2020 we also had much more bearish conditions than now in 2024, if we take into account that the price in 2019 had reached almost $15.000 and at halving date was around $10.000, and also there was price stagnation for some months (and the real bullrun only began in November).
Another argument could be that the current hashrate is "inflated" due to publicly listed mining companies like Riot who diluted their shares but are probably mining on a loss actually, i.e. operating close to a "ponzi" but preserving a high hashrate. This would be more convincing for me, as I already wrote in the last post. But does that apply to all bigger miners? I have some doubts here.
Difficulty adjustments is indeed a better metric than daily hashrate. But difficulty until now fell only 5.1% since the maximum in April according to Coinwarz (88.1 T to 83.7 T). I guess it will fall a bit lower in the next adjustment but I'm still not convinced it will get lower than -15 or -20% from the pre-halving maximum.
Again, let's see
What I however don't understand is why you think that this time it's different to previous halvings and recovery will not occur or be slower than in 2016 and 2020.
If we look at the 2024 halving from a reward perspective, it was less devastating for miner income than 2016 and 2020, because the reward is already so low that transaction fees are increasing their share, so it's no more a 50% income reduction but more close to 40-45%.
But let's explorer the possibilities a bit. One argument could be the stagnant price evolution since April, but a strong counter-argument is just 2016, when the post-halving price evolution was stagnant for a long time, basically until November/December, but hashrate/difficulty recovery was very fast. In 2020 we also had much more bearish conditions than now in 2024, if we take into account that the price in 2019 had reached almost $15.000 and at halving date was around $10.000, and also there was price stagnation for some months (and the real bullrun only began in November).
Another argument could be that the current hashrate is "inflated" due to publicly listed mining companies like Riot who diluted their shares but are probably mining on a loss actually, i.e. operating close to a "ponzi" but preserving a high hashrate. This would be more convincing for me, as I already wrote in the last post. But does that apply to all bigger miners? I have some doubts here.
A new trend in miners (at least PubCO companies that im tracking) they are moving to HPC services,
Yes, miner diversification is definitely an interesting evolution. It could lead to more income stability for mining companies but the hashrate could stay relatively volatile, because it's easier to simply change hardware than to set up or dismantle entire mining farms.