But in this case, you should expect that City will once again be knocked out by some ordinary club and Real won’t even have to strain

In general, it’s quite sad that everyone began (and probably rightly) to evaluate the Champions League as a tournament for a narrow group of clubs where the favorites are rated as 2.5-4.0. This says a lot about the predictability of the tournament. If I remember correctly, this season the NHL favorite was rated as 7.0. That is, in fact, many clubs had a chance to win and the whole tournament was interesting.
I'm in the same line of thoughts with you even though I cannot also rule out the fact that the big clubs are there to make their efforts too and they are also trained to take the trophy home. Nevertheless, narrowing down the predictions to only the big English or La Liga clubs is not just enough because if we were to follow the same line of thoughts, we would have written off clubs Like Dortmund which actually got to the final position against Madrid in the last season. So, Champions league should be bigger than those thoughts.
The thing with champions league games is the fact that the prediction sometimes is done according to the performance of the team at the moment and how experience team has in the Champions League competition how ever the elite teams seem to be more favored in the champions league predictions because of the level of players they have got in the team when compared to the players of other teams. If you look at how the prediction is actually done the big teams in every league is picked to be on a stand out but when the group stages is passed, the possibility of teams that should get to the semi finals or finals is easily predicted based on the performance of the teams but sometimes a small club can get to the finals as a result of their form in the champions league competition.
Dortmund had a poor performance in the German league last season but their performance in the champions league was different and it took them to the finals even though they lost against the Real Madrid team but next Champions league is on the way I believe the prediction will also be made according to the form of the team, the champions league experience and the performance of the team in the champions league games.