Post
Topic
Board Bitcoin Discussion
Topic OP
Justin Bons' prediction on long-term security of BTC
by
flatfly
on 09/07/2024, 07:02:39 UTC
Just wondering, does this make any sense?

https://twitter.com/Justin_Bons/status/1810357305390616839

Quote

1/38) BTC's security model is broken

It has to double in price every 4 years for a century or sustain extremely high fees!

Just to maintain the present level of security...

Which is impossible, as it would exceed global GDP within decades

Therefore, BTC security is doomed!


2/38) Each halvening exponentially lowers the security budget; until it is gone!

These halvenings continue after exceeding global GDP for atleast 70 years before running out completely

If you understand exponentials & economics, you should know that this is entirely impossible!


3/38) Fees will also never reach sustained extremes due to the ratcheting effect of the fee market

Paying hundreds of dollars for a single TX is not realistic in a competitive free market

When fees spike, users leave, all due to the unnecessary addition of the block size limit!


4/38) This all means that BTC's long-term security is unsustainable without extremely high TX fees in the future!

The security of BTC will inevitably continue to decrease until it becomes profitable to attack

I predict this will happen in 4-12 years from now! (1-3 halvenings)


5/38) Hashrate does not equal security; bitcoiners like @saylor do not understand PoW

This chart of miner revenue proves that BTC's security is actually lower now than it was 3 years ago!