Let’s say he’s a current resident of England. People do move. He says he resided in LUX during play and has supporting evidence.
I assume you're referring residence permit of LUX as his supporting evidence? Can he prove that he's still in Luxembourg soil when he played and not in UK? His IP address showed UK, he made statements [here, to us] that he's frequently commuting to UK, and even if the same situation with Vodavone Spain applies to his UK provider, that his IP will ping him as UK regardless of his actual location, it doesn't omit a possibility that he's indeed in UK during one of the session.
Amuse me, how do you propose OP should prove that his words is true, that he never, not once, played when he's in UK soil, despite his IP pinged to UK?
Also there is a difference between where you are living and what country you are a “resident” from. Living in a country for a year doesn’t make you a “resident” of the country. The OP didn’t break the ToS.
How? If the play come from UK or Spain [or other restricted territory] it certainly will be considered as a breach of ToS. So, it matters where the play come from. Unless I am wrongly seeing this, so how is it not matter? Please indulge me with an easy to understand explanation.
As for the residency situation, here's a simple break down: their ToS prohibit a resident of UK to play on their platform. OP made a statement that he's a UK resident, supported by UK IP. So let me ask you again, how do you propose OP to prove that he never, not once, played from UK?
Let's make it a bit more complicated. He made a statement that he's a UK resident. Even with LUX residence permit, which shows the date of expiracy, but doesn't [obviously] tell us whether he stays until the expiration date or he has moved to other country and have another residence permit there, it opens to a possibility that he [at any point from the residency permit of LUX being issued to this day] actually have a situation as he said, that he's no longer in LUX and has become a UK semi-permanent resident.
He retracted his statement of being a UK resident and said that he commute to UK on frequent basis [if I'm not mistaken] only after it's being pointed out to him that UK is also a restricted territory. Worsen that with the fact that not even once his IP pinged to be from LUX [that whole wifi situation]. Bring this to any court, even civil court, I believe most will see it as an attempt to change a narrative to save himself from self-incrimination. Unless, he can prove that he's indeed only made up that incriminating statement for whatever reason, that it's false and that he's still commute to UK because his base is still in LUX.
They are willing [at least that's the impression I get as they're still opening a communication with OP] to listen to OP's defense, I tend to believe it's a very short window that will closes soon by the numbers of correspondencies he has with their team. So unless you can suggest OP a way to prove that he never access from within UK soil despite what his IP said, the better option will be to disprove his own statement of being UK resident, so yes, it needs to be recanted. I believe I don't need to explain that even with the UK provider giving the same explanation as Spain Vodavone, it doesn't directly disprove OP to have ever play from UK.
Pursuing the possibility to produce a supporting document that his employment transfers only become effective on certain date after 10th of June, or if he can provide them with UK residence permit [if I'm not wrong, it has date of issuance on it], we will have a small blip of hope that his previous UK residency statement/situation is not valid, since being rather full time in LUX and temporarily in UK [since he only commute instead of having a residence permit] would give a smaller chance for him to access Rollbit from UK soil compared to if he's being in UK full time.
If you have a better suggestion to help OP gets out of this situation, perhaps help him with the wifi situation as that's what asked by Rollbit's team, if not a way to prove he never play from within UK soil, I'm all ears.