The "rules" that Dan keeps bringing up doesn't work in the face of sudden developing news. Will we be talking about "corrections", "a, b, and c" when Second Market opens to the greater public? I think not. Will we be talking about "regression" and "downtrend" when sidechains crushes the altcoin market? No!
The argument against the idea that Second Market's ETF/exchange is that it's priced in by early adopters. One could imagine the Second Market exchange opening with a ton of fanfare with a lot of newcomers rushing to buy Bitcoin, but the price not making new highs because the early adopters will sell to these newbies. I'm not saying this WILL happen, but rather, it's a possibility to account for.
The altcoin market is tiny: Litecoin has 1/10 of the market cap as Bitcoin. The next biggest market cap is 1/10 of Litecoin. In other words, you can approximate the entire alt-coin market cap as 1/10 of Bitcoin's. If you're being charitable, it might be more like 1/5. Either way, that's a max 20% gain if Bitcoin takes over the entire alt-coin market cap.
Having said that I do believe one bullish argument you noted: $6 billion is not enough of a market cap on which to run the world's financial system. That's why I keep holding my position.