I find that lots of people doing TA in BTC often fails because of several things:
1) Failure to take into account exponential user adoption in an otherwise uncapitalized market.
2) Failure to take into account unforeseen news, for better or worse.
3) Failure to take into account foreseen news, such as new exchanges opening, and capital investment pouring in.
3) Failure to take into account unforeseen BTC development timelines, such as sidechains.
4) Ultimately not being able to see the forest for the trees.
The "rules" that Dan keeps bringing up doesn't work in the face of sudden developing news. Will we be talking about "corrections", "a, b, and c" when Second Market opens to the greater public? I think not. Will we be talking about "regression" and "downtrend" when sidechains crushes the altcoin market? No!
These guys doing TA in BTC assumes that they are still in a stock market when really, BTC is a stock, a currency, and an emerging technology that is the internet of money. The Elliott Wave analysis works only on a micro timescale, when it comes to macro timescale, these guys can't see the forest for trees!
Not seeing $5000 for 3-4 years? Sure, if we assume that the bitcoin technology stays the same, the userbase stays the same, and capital not pouring in. There will be no Second Market, no Winklevoss ETF, no US exchanges opening, no sidechain, and on and on.
1) Failure to take into account exponential user adoption in an otherwise uncapitalized market.
2) Failure to take into account unforeseen news, for better or worse.
3) Failure to take into account foreseen news, such as new exchanges opening, and capital investment pouring in.
3) Failure to take into account unforeseen BTC development timelines, such as sidechains.
4) Ultimately not being able to see the forest for the trees.
The "rules" that Dan keeps bringing up doesn't work in the face of sudden developing news. Will we be talking about "corrections", "a, b, and c" when Second Market opens to the greater public? I think not. Will we be talking about "regression" and "downtrend" when sidechains crushes the altcoin market? No!
These guys doing TA in BTC assumes that they are still in a stock market when really, BTC is a stock, a currency, and an emerging technology that is the internet of money. The Elliott Wave analysis works only on a micro timescale, when it comes to macro timescale, these guys can't see the forest for trees!
Not seeing $5000 for 3-4 years? Sure, if we assume that the bitcoin technology stays the same, the userbase stays the same, and capital not pouring in. There will be no Second Market, no Winklevoss ETF, no US exchanges opening, no sidechain, and on and on.
1) It's only Exponential during rises. This doesn't mean the user base is not expanding, just that it isn't likely that it's exponential right now. Proof would be gladly accepted.
2) Irrelevant! The effect news will have is dependent on the way it is perceived. News is perceived differently in rises than declines.
3-a?) New exchanges are only a short term bump in the overall picture. And "All this new money pouring in..." you guys sound like the Litecoiners when Gox was supposedly going to add LTC to the exchange. Again, it was a short term bump and then leveled off.
3-b?) I don't know what these "sidechains" are, but anyone can read about the development going on in the BTC world if you just look.
4) ...
Just to make a point as we have been around for a while
3-b ...Gox statement caused a expo rise from 5 cents to $2-4 ... so i dont know how you would caputure that on an elliot wave