I'm not quite so pessimistic as the OP. I do think the real value of Bitcoin is somewhere between $5 and $9.99.
lol Yep! At that time, it was worth between $5-9.99. Now it may be worth a little more, perhaps $25-50, or maybe $10-35... This is not my own sentiment. This is based on actual use and not the speculative demand.
As a side note; The mining difficulty is based on speculative demand too. I don't care what a miner thinks he deserves for a Bitcoin because he decided to start mining late. If the price hadn't risen (from speculative demand) then there wouldn't be so many miners pumping the difficulty up, and in turn, these prices would not be expected for a mined coin. It's a vicious cycle, but the fundamentals simply do not support this price. Get rich quick boys do.
How do you separate actual use from the speculative demand? I'd like to see data backing that it's not just your own sentiment.
I can claim that one BTC is worth a million, and would be as valid as your opinion of $25, but in the end, the price is dictated by the market, clear and simple. It's currently $429.