For me, it seems that an overwhelming majority of newbie investors would not be able to reach their BTC accumulation goal in ONLY 4 years, unless they are already investing in other things at the time that they come to bitcoin, so then they are able to reallocate into bitcoin, so frequantly those folks who might have accumulation goals that are only in the lower end of the range of even only 12 cycle or 2 cycles, they are likely going to have had an ability to front loaded their investment in order to reach such accumulation goals. 

But, yeah, no matter what your abilities, it seems quite prudent to have plans from the beginning to be investing into bitcoin for at least a whole cycle, even though surely there are folks who strive to trade rather than to invest, even if they might be calling what they are doing as investing, which is hard to imagine anyone considering themselves as an actual investor with less than a whole cycle as their timeline to stay in bitcoin.

I believe that this particular thread is not for ONLY investors, so there are going to be some members with trading mindsets that contribute to this thread and they are not going to automatically be off topic by wanting to trade bitcoin rather than to invest into it, and so that is their choice, yet some of the traders try to present their trading ideas as if they were no brainer better ways to go about exposure to bitcoin, and it seems to me that many of them are likely going to end up doing worse than investors who retain a mindset of bitcoin accumulation rather than trying to fuck around with getting in and out of bitcoin and hoping that they are able to buy low and sell high and even believing that they are going to be able to buy back lower than their sell price... and so maybe many of them will end up having regrets for their selling too many too soon and ending up with fewer bitcoin than they wished that the would have had with the same amount of capital that a longer term investor ended up using to accumulate bitcoin, and sometimes it is way better to end up having a higher cost per bitcoin if you end up having more bitcoin because you were spending your time, money and energies to accumulate bitcoin rather than fucking around with trying to strategize your entry point. which ends up putting you into the wrong mindset in regards to appreciating the value of bitcoin as a long term investment.   


You can always find examples of people who bought low and sold high and they might have even been able to buy back bitcoin at a lower price after selling it.

But that still seems to be a BIG ass distraction, and hopefully you are not so short-sighted to fail to recognize the value of bitcoin and the value of mostly accumulating it rather than fucking around with trying to trade it.. but hey, whatever, you can do what you like and you can admire anyone you like.. which seems dumb to be admiring traders/gamblers.. even though surely those guys like to brag about their various gains, and yeah they might even be lucky 7 out of 10 times.. for a while. .but it is difficult to consistently win in such a way that would even out earn a BTC accumulation strategy that does not involve so much gambling and/or being out of the BTC market when you should be in the market.


Hopefully you recognize the value of mostly accumulating BTC, and selling does not seem like an accumulation strategy, even though some folks believe that selling is an accumulation strategy, which may work for them, until it doesn't.. .and yeah, guys can do whatever they like, including selling too many BTC too soon, and waiting for BTC price drops that may or may not end up happening.  There are still guys waiting for BTC to drop into the $40ks because of all of the recent scares, and yeah, there are probably a decent number of them contemplating whether to buy back in or just continue to wait for price dips that may or may not happen,  and meantime the BTC accumulator is just regularly buying, whether weekly or otherwise, and the BTC accumulator is ongoingly making progress in terms of ongoingly increasing his BTC stash, which seems to be a preferable way of approaching an asset as valuable as bitcoin.


It seems pretty short-term to think about bitcoin in terms of mere dollar profits, yet of course, 15, 20 30 or more years down the road when a guy might start to shave off his bitcoin for spending, then presumptively it is going to be in profits, so it may or may not matter that in the first 4-10 years, the bitcoin might have been in profits.. and at a certain point, maybe even after a whole cylce there is an expectation that the BTC holdings will be in profits, but even after a whole cycle, it still may well be the case that the bitcoin holdings are not even close to large enough in terms of both the amount that had been put in nor the amount that the coins had appreciated, so if there is an assessment of the overall value of the holdings, hopefully considering the value in terms of 200-WMa (bottom price) rather than spot price (which may or may not end up having some top prices in there), then there may be some kinds of sustainable withdrawal plans that make more sense than  other possible plans, and there might not be a lot of focus on how much in profits the holdings are, but instead figuring out ways to either start to withdraw in time based ways (monthly) and/or perhaps price based ways in which certain amounts of BTC are sold at various points when the BTC price goes up to certain price points... but if the BTC holdings are enough, there surely may be quite a bit of flexibility in the ways that sustainable withdrawal is carried out in such a way that only portions of the BTC holdings are sold at any given time... and so mostly the holdings stay intact, and presumptively they are not only profitable, but they could be many times more valuable than the amount invested and presumptively keeping up in value in terms of real value rather than nominal value (so accounting for the likely ongoing debasement of fiat currencies).


Personally, I think newbies should get started rather than wasting time researching.  They can learn as they go, but just get the fuck started rather than fucking around with various waiting strategies, including but not limited to researching... when the ONLY thing they really need to know to get started is whether they have discretionary income or not.  If they have discretionary income then they can start buying bitcoin. If they do not have discretionary income or they are not sure if they have discretionary income, then they have to make sure they have discretionary income before starting to invest in bitcoin...so that they are investing rather than gambling.