Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: US-China economy war + radical Trump = higher inflation + interest rates + war
by
NotATether
on 18/07/2024, 12:50:14 UTC
Another way they've always used to control inflation is to bring down energy prices (remember Petrodollar).
In order to do that they'll have to increase the supply of oil in the global market.
To do that they need to (1) remove sanctions on Russia and let that oil flow again (2) convince Arab dictators to increase their production (3) end the wars in West Asia so that security comes back and they can actually increase production (remember Saudi invasion of Yemen is in a ceasefire state and not ended).

There is a good chance that the next US president will be able to fulfill #1 by ending the NATO-Russian war (possibly recognizing occupied parts as Russia) as there are enough signals coming out from US making me confident about that possibility. Trump will probably have an easier time doing that because of his radical decisions.

The problem will be #2 and #3.
~

I don't think that Ukraine has any intention to end the war any time soon unless they get their occupied providences back (they will also push for Crimea but there is a tiny chance that that part could be negotiated over).

EU too, are not willing to let a ceasefire happen until that is done, because the cold, calculating Putin would like to invade other european countries next after he is done with Ukraine, so they are unlikely to cooperate.