Why should I believe ? 9 out of 10 picks from so called "experts" are wrong because they are being paid from bookies to actually give false predictions. It's way better to simply forget that sports experts exist and just focus on your own predictions based on your own calculations and so on.
Even AI predictions at Euro went so wrong like 7 out 10 calls were wrong so no matter who makes the predictions , they always tend to be wrong.
It is natural that no matter how great experienced predictions are made, mistakes are bound to happen in gambling. I usually don't bet on an experienced guy because no matter how experienced he is, he can never predict the dynamics of a game. Therefore, if an experienced person makes a prediction out of nine games, maybe 50% will be right and the other 50% will be wrong. But as much as you should bet according to your own research and verification because what you research in this case can lead to good results in your betting.