The first one reminds me of my friend who over anticipated the Pixelverse airdrop and now has 0 token allocation. I don't know how broken he's going to be right now, but Pixelcerse did him dirty because he had lots of points from participating in the airdrop. I'm sure his morale is down by now.
projects like to eliminate people from their airdrops so that it don't get too diluted for whatever reasons, sometime it's unfair too but nothing we can do if the project just like to pull some ridiculous stunt like that.that's why the first point matter a lot, don't over anticipate because there are many ways where things can go wrong and we don't even have any allocation to our name
but regardless keep grinding i'm sure at one point the work that we've done will be paid off.
this is also why i liked more joining airdrop that the reward is determined using point, it just more clear and smaller chance that my effort will go in vain.