I see the market as being driven by traders and thats why we've been in a range. People do buy BTC on leverage, they pay interest to do so and then they sell. Lots of markets especially commodity markets are driven in that way. So far its been too tempting to sell at 70k, once again I expect some test in this area.
If I tell you that I understand what you are saying, then I might be pretending. The only thing I can pick from your statement is that you seems to be technical savvy and from your analysis you are suggesting that $70k is a tempting price to sell. Well, that should me that you are more or less trading and that is not really what we are discussing in this thread. Perhaps as I'm not interested in trading, I could not make sense of what you are saying.
I sold in 2016 autumn, just enough to buy PC parts but clearly that cost me alot to do so. I did later recognize in Feb 2017 BTC was silently stronger then it appeared but almost always DCA is entirely justified. Its normal to be distracted or even worse, fearful, scared to buy and maybe scared into selling.
Just imagined you had held those precious coins till date, just think how happy, rich and fulfilled you would have been now. That is definitely the good thing about thinking long term. Reading through your post now give me more trust in the long term project and I'm happy we have a thread like this to learn from the mistakes and experiences of others. Now I will take my Bitcoin accumulation more seriously and see what the future holds.