Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Merits 1 from 1 user
Re: Buy Buy Buy or Sell Sell Sell?
by
wxa7115
on 23/07/2024, 08:26:23 UTC
⭐ Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
One  major thing most investors has  fail to understand is that, greed is never a good thing,  especially in this crypto industry,  almost all  veterans investors knows that when it comes to digital currencies, Bitcoin is second to none, but due to greedy of making 10x to 100x, they will still go ahead and invest in shit coin without taking into consideration the risk attached to it, they gambles with their hard earned money, even when they know how risky it is, some of them don't even know that investing in shit coin or alt are just like gambling, which the possibilities of them losing their hard earned money, is far greater than the possibilities of them making something out of it.

Secondly, most newbies investors that falls for this, are mostly misinformed, they were mostly told the juicy part of it, which is the 10x to 100x, but they weren't told how risky it is to invest in shit coin, until that greedy aspect of most investors are corrected, I Believe that the only way they can learn is on their own terms, which is learning it the hard way, when they have lost all their funds.
I want to go a little deeper when it comes to this and let us use some actual numbers to illustrate more clearly the mistake that it is to invest in those shitcoins, and while it is impossible to calculate in a completely accurate way the expected value of putting money on a shitcoin, let us do it for illustrative purposes.

So, what are the chances that a shitcoin does a 10x while you are holding it and you keep it for long enough to enjoy those benefits? Difficult to know but probably around 1%, and with that number we can make a rough estimation of how much money in terms of percentage you can make on average when buying a shitcoin.

Getting 10x: 1000% * 0.01 = 10%
Getting small profit: 20% * 0.2  = 4%
Breaking even: 0% * 0.2 = 0%
Small loss: -20% * 0.39 = -7.8%
Catastrophic loss: -100% * 0.2 = -20%

And when we add all of those results we get -13.8%, this number represents the expected value of deciding to put your money into a shitcoin, and while the numbers are arbitrary, they do reflect the reality, as it is often necessary for those interested in shitcoins to get burned several times before losing most or all of their capital, so basically anyone taking their chances with those coins should expect on average a loss close to that percentage of any money put into a shitcoin.