Im not recommending trading, I wouldnt do that any more then recommending the next horse to win a race. There is a parallel in trading and gambling I agree, but people do want to discuss the market direction and I think that is fair to discuss and whether people act with conviction to buy more or less is upto them. I agree people should be doing DCA in growth assets & I would have agreed with that strategy even before BTC was invented.
Majority of people wont be good at trading, if BTC is a bull market - it is, then there is a higher danger of missing out elevated by trading. Iam interested in trading but nobody should be betting they are correct with all their BTC, its such a volatile market that would be very difficult to achieve .
Well anybody can choose to do what they want to do but there is somuch risk in trading I wouldn't advise anybody to be interested in trading Bitcoin seeing Bitcoin as a tradable coin can be very wrong for Bitcoin is more profitable if hodl for long and not to trade in a short term perspective for there is no how you can compare those investors that held there Bitcoin for long and those that go for short term purpose for those that hold for long will be happier compare to short term traders.
You sound like an inexperienced trader. Though it's good advice if one can not handle trading, investment is less risky, so why not opt for it? Still, you do not have to discourage people, especially with Bitcoin trading which I deem to be one of the easiest assets to be traded in the financial market. But the issue with people is that they would want to trade Bitcoin in the regular way, that's off. Any margined products will always be risky, which is why one may plan the trading accornding to the nature of Bitcoin.
Its a well known fact that Bitcoin moves in season/cycle, so why not wait till a bearish season ends and buy your Bitcoin on the futures market with the right plan and management? This trade is set to be left alone for at least a year and many months. Any trader who can do this regularly will not have any reason to be sad about Bitcoin trading, it's only the short-term traders who have enough to worry about.
Your post can be misleading to newbies who wants to start their bitcoin investment to think that trading can give the profit. It is better that new investors don't go into trading because it will make you run at loss since it is very risk and complex to understand. New investors should only invest in bitcoin for long-term, using DCA to grow and build your bitcoin stash overtime.
I think you are short sighted to see what bitcoin can do in the future if you hodli for a long period of time and that is why you prefer to buy at the bear market and sell at the bull run. I will call a misplaced priority because what is the benefit of buying and selling believing to buy back in the bear. You are only risking your funds because of little increase in price that might later turn against you because if you sell at the bull run and hold fiat what is the benefit of you holding fiat instead of leaving your bitcoin investment to grow in size overtime as you are building it.
There is what is called compounding effect of your bitcoin portfolio which is your bitcoin keeps on increasing and generating more profit which that profits will also be added to the initial amount of bitcoin and generate more profit. Just like the compound interest that was thought to you in school about fiat saved in the bank. Bitcoin profit is far better than that of fiat. Only one wrong decision in trading can make you loss all your funds with the market goes against you and you will regret your action in life.