I don't actually agree with your -13.8% because the risk is far higher than that. Perhaps you have not invested in a shitcoin that died and became totally worthless, else you will known that the percentage is far higher than what you posted.
edited
I don't know how you calculated it but the probability of getting times 10 or more should have the lowest odds
And going dead or catastrophic loss should have way higher odds more than 0.5 if am not been bias
A risk of 13.8% is quite low for shitcoins.
edited
As I said, it is impossible to calculate the actual number, or at least it would be incredibly time consuming since it will require the analysis of every single shitcoin out there, its daily behavior and the profits or losses given on every single time frame on existence.
My point was to try to give it an approximate number, so newbies out there which hear all the time that shitcoins are bad, get a rough idea of how bad they can be, as losing 13.8% of the money invested in one of those shitcoins is already bad enough, as a person can go bankrupt by investing in just a handful of those coins, however it is entirely possible, and even likely, that the actual number is higher than that as both of you claim.