A prediction market is a VERY good idea. The CIA wanted a prediction market to gauge terrorist risk but everyone went nuts.
Hey Byronbb,
It's funny to think that the CIA was interested in prediction markets back in 2001. I actually found their 2006 paper on it:
https://www.cia.gov/resources/csi/static/Prediction-Markets-Enhance-Intel.pdf.
Fast forward 23 years, and I'm about to launch early access for Makao, a web app that puts users in control of their own prediction markets.
If you're curious, learn more and sign up for early access at Makaoapp.com. For quicker access or to discuss prediction markets, reach out to me on X:
https://twitter.com/marc_nahas.
Would love to hear your thoughts!