But why would anybody offer you 7:1 if you run up to them screaming that your bet is a guaranteed winner? You didn't ask for 7:1, you asked for "significantly better than 1:1." Well, what does that mean? I would call 4:1 significantly better,
I would call 3:2 significantly better than 1:1
Sure, sure, but even at my extreme it would not have been a profitable bet for him, by his own numbers. My point is simply why would he expect someone to go immediately to something like 7:1 if he is touting his prediction as if it were infallible. The most likely reason seems he doesn't want to actually bet, of course.