What have you learned from it?
That scenario thinking and probabilities are very hard to understand for many people, even in threads dedicated to it. Further education is necessary, but any serious and accountable predictions by anyone should be taken
here, with a consistent and uniform methodology, and
cash prizes (all entry fees go to the pot + my 1,000m
BTC bounty and perhaps windjc's also..)
You're missing the point. The risk of dropping below $435 was much higher to many of us than it was to you. Your estimation was off. Those of us who thought the risk was higher than you thought it was had good reason to think so. You may have had good reason to think it would never go that low again,
but it did go that low again.
Your prediction was wrong. Why? Why did you fuck up? Why did you blow it? simply because the future is unknowable? Do you think we are just lucky idiots?
It's ok to get a call wrong. We all do. That's when we learn. Have you identified a way for your forecasting ability to be improved? Show some fucking humility, Man. You're bleeding credibility when you do shit like that. Quit defending yourself. It just makes you look worse.
People who might otherwise want to invest in Bitcoin will be reluctant to do so if they think it's going to enrich people of low moral character. If that was Jorge's point all along then I finally get it. You and I were smart for seeing early on the value of Bitcoin, but trading day trading is getting more sophisticated, more complicated and more difficult every day. This community needs elder statesmen and you should be filling that roll instead of making reckless predictions and ego-driven bet proposals.