Differences in assumptions are good, but you may need to respect other people's assumptions as well. Someone believes that for a reason, even if you don't like it then it never changes anything. I also agree with your assumption that Chelsea needs a lot of time to compete for the title again, so it is very likely that they will not be in the Champions League zone next season for various reasons. Improving team performance is the main goal of Chelsea's new coach and management, but it takes time and is not an easy process.
Some of the teams that I think will compete for the title include Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester United. Chelsea and Tottenham and Newcastle can certainly be among the competitors above, but their performance last season is still questionable.
Concerning the league contenders, everyone have their opinion of which teams would triumph and it's fair enough to respect people's decision, but then their are many factors i feel could hinder Chelsea from winning the league, they just signed a new manager and it could take players time to understand his tactics, there could be issues in the dressing room with the way the board is handling certain decisions, they lack enough quality squad depth compared to other top teams, they need a very good quality striker the likes of Victor Osimhen or Harry Kane that could score 20 goals or more in a season, Chelsea should rather focus on performing well in the Conference League and finishing in top 4 position cause winning the EPL next season is not something they could achieve without a miracle. I love that you placed Manchester City and Arsenal above other teams, they've been the most outstanding in the past two seasons but then one team to really watch out for this season is Manchester United, INEOS is really transforming the sporting areas of the club and it could give them a boost next season.