Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Road to 100k?
by
JayJuanGee
on 04/08/2024, 19:41:54 UTC
You are right, The current market downturn may not be balanced for now but it's actually a good time to accumulate more at a cheaper price and let's not forget that Bitcoin has a history shows of fluctuating. Let's keep our fingers crossed and not panic, perhaps we will see a rebound soon And our patience will pay off.
Patience must always be increased in market conditions like today as well as continuing to increase our own capital in order to continue buying Bitcoin at the current price level of $60K.

That comes off as a bit of a weird way of characterizing what bitcoin investor are doing when they are continuing to buy bitcoin during these times in which the BTC price is dipping.

You are technically correct that putting income into bitcoin would be attempting to build and/or preserve capital for the future since the cash (or value) would be held in bitcoin rather than holding the value in cash or in some other asset...   But it seems to me that the increase in capital does not come in any kind of a quick and/or noticeable way, even though surely on our ledger (to the extent that we are keeping track of our BTC stash), we would be able to see that our quantity of satoshis is getting greater and greater,  even though through BTC's price fluctuation, including its going down, it could well be the case that we might have ongoing periods in which the overall value of our BTC holdings and even our overall wealth in general is going down (and thus our capital is going down) based on the BTC price going down more than it is going up... and at the same time, there continues to be no guarantee that the BTC price is going to go back up merely because it went down.. so almost always, we likely have to consider the extent to which we want to continue to place value into bitcoin as compared with placing that value into some other asset (whether cash or some other asset).

Likely there are a decent number of already convinced bitcoiners who do not lose any confidence in terms of keeping decent amounts of their wealth in bitcoin or add more to the amount of their wealth in bitcoin, whether the BTC prices are going up or they are going down, and there does not even need to arise some level of anything close to certainty about the bitcoin's price going up or maintaining its value in order to retain a sufficient enough of confidence in bitcoin to either keep decent amounts of value in bitcoin or to continue to add value to bitcoin in order to keep such value in bitcoin as opposed to other places that the value could be placed or kept.

Because we can all always learn from past history where Bitcoin has always been able to recover after a price drop and now the opportunity has returned to everyone who wants to own Bitcoin and buy it at a lower price than the end of last month.

I agree with any proposition that 1) bitcoin remains an asymmetric bet to the upside, 2) bitcoin is one of the best, if not the best place to put extra value and 3) bitcoin's investment thesis is not becoming weaker with the passage of time, including during times in which there seems to be quite a bit of downward price pressures (and momentum).  Nonetheless, it still seems problematic to me, when bitcoin's price performance is characterized as if there were some guarantee that the price is going to be going back up when it goes down.  To me, it just seems a wrong way of describing why we (and most people in the world) should be continuing to buy bitcoin as aggressively as we are able to with our discretionary income in a consistent, persistent and ongoing way.

And I am still quite optimistic that Bitcoin can still turn to a higher level even though at the beginning of this month its movement has started to be a little sluggish even though it can provide an opportunity for everyone to re-enter the market and buy more Bitcoin.

I am glad that you keep your confidence in bitcoin, even though from my perspective, our price moves in bitcoin, which has largely been between $53k and $74k since the end of February, we have largely been consolidating in the top of bitcoin's price range, so even though our current BTC price correction of the past week or so has seemed to be somewhat dramatic, we still have not fallen out of this top of the price range, even though we are getting closer and closer to the bottom of such range.

In other words, the supposed severity of our recent BTC price corrections in the last week or so comes off as largely noise... Who cares?  Just look at your own situation, and if you have enough bitcoin either HODL through it and maybe consider if you might buy some more at various price points, and if you don't have enough bitcoin, then just continue to buy bitcoin.   And, by the way, an overwhelming majority of the world's population fits into the category of not having enough bitcoin, and there is even great number of people who are no coiners and are low coiners**.. so those folks who are no coiners or low coiners surely should be buying bitcoin rather than either ignoring bitcoin or engaging in some kind of waiting strategy.

**My own definition of a "low coiner" is not merely someone who does not have enough BTC, but instead my definition of a low coiner in the context of criticizing them for not ongoingly engaging in practices to continue to accumulate BTC, even though they know about bitcoin and have previously purchased some bitcoin.

Those who dream that Bitcoin will one day cross $100k are trying to invest in a long-term plan anyway. If they keep on trying like this then in time they will definitely succeed and the expectations they have invested in will be fulfilled.

I seem to agree with everything that you say in your post, except when it comes to these last two sentences, and in your last two sentences, it seems to me that you write as if investing into bitcoin is guaranteed to return profits, yet it is not.

Waiting is part of the business so anyone who cannot wait will not be able to survive in Bitcoin investment. So, it is good to get the mind properly set on the right track with the understanding of the fact that investment in Bitcoin is a waiting game.  Whichever method anyone choses, be it DCA or buying the dip, there is some element of waiting and even when the Bitcoin have been bought, waiting is needed because holding is still part of waiting.
There's no profits that you can get in investing without waiting. For those who don't want to wait they can learn to start trading and get profits when they get their trades right but if you want to become an investor, you must learn to have patience. The price of Bitcoin might have taken a blow as the price is now below $60k but we shouldn't lose hope because when it starts to rise back, there'll be no stopping of Bitcoin. We have to think of long term before investing in Bitcoin or we shouldn't invest because thinking short term will make us losers in the long run.

Every dip should be a buying opportunity and we shouldn't panic, great investors don't panic when they market is falling because they buy and if we are busy buying. We won't have the time to come online to complain that they price of Bitcoin is falling. You're right by saying waiting is a part of business and investing in Bitcoin can be considered your business because of the profits it can give us but we shouldn't only be depending in Bitcoin as we can have other investments outside of cryptocurrency to help us in bear seasons.

I largely agree with the sentiment of what you seem to be saying Bananington; however, I am a little confused by your suggestion that ongoing action rather than waiting might be something that we balance in our other investments and/or outside of "cryptocurrency," which also causes me to consider that might be having some difficulties in regards to how our likely need for ongoing action, rather than waiting, might need to remain focused upon a continued buying of bitcoin to the extent that we might not yet have enough bitcoin.. so in some regards, our problem (during dips like these or even during long periods in which bitcoin is failing/refusing to go up as much as we might have had anticipated) is that we might well not have enough bitcoin and we might need to just continuing buying bitcoin, even if our ongoing purchasing of bitcoin might end up raising our average costs per BTC. 

It is a bit difficult for me to consider that during something like our current BTC situation that our solution relates to NOT remaining focused upon ongoingly continuing to accumulate bitcoin, so that in several senses, the idea of actually waiting would ONLY really come into play once we have accumulated enough or more than enough BTC.. so that was also a bit of my issue with the ways that Moreno233 seemed to be describing what an already existing BTC holder should be doing... and part of my difficulty with the whole idea of waiting is that such a practice likely does not really apply very much for any bitcoin accumulator/holder who has not yet reached a sufficient and/or excessive amount of BTC.. .. so even if I largely understand the idea of waiting and/or patience, but it just seems problematic to be describing the position of anyone who is not sufficiently or overly allocated to bitcoin to be one of waiting, since it is more likely that such person should likely be continuing to accumulate bitcoin regularly or to have various relatively reasonable price targets in which s/he would ongoingly be buying BTC on dips... and yeah it surely seems that these days, and even currently in the past week or so, we have had been having decently strong dips that really don't make a whole hell of a lot of sense outside of merely being opportunities to continue to buy while others are seeming to fuck around selling bitcoin when they probably should be buying it.