I write this 3 days before halving...

So far it has been disappointing... no big rallies/bull runs yet.

Possible causes:

1. People's transactions to transfer/sell bitcoin after all time high still processing/back log (profit taking, congestion on btc blockchain/limited blockspace).

2. Major Exchanges pulling out of countries due to laws.

3. Tether/usdt pulling out/closing up shop on some blockchains (causes usdt liquidity issue, lack of usdt on exchanges(?)).

4. Some ETF outflows mostly grayscale ETF annual fee related (high maintenance costs, outflow/inflow to cheaper competitors or permanent outflow/self custody).

5. Bitcoin over bought, now correction: long term holders selling to short term holders.

Possible time line:
Next 2 weeks possible drop to 50k (for now holding on to 60k thx to oil/gold rally)
Next 2 months recovery/rally to 72k
Next 2 weeks Side ways 72k
Next 4 years to 100k to 150k, maybe 250k all time high.