but what happens when it keeps going down to let's say $43-$45k? After buying at $53k you discover that you have nothing close to gaining and you know Bitcoin doesn't just goes up like that, it takes time and that's where the fear comes in to make many start selling, to me it has to do with how calm you are when you're being pressured.
Of course, each of us should be financially and psychologically prepared for potential downside scenarios, including going down to the 200WMA or even below, even though surely we already had a pretty decent dip to $49.6k-ish, so it seems a bit overly pessimistic (or chart oriented) to be fucking around worrying about such downside scenarios, and hopefully your worrying about such downside scenarios is not contributing to your failure/refusal to make sure that you are sufficiently/adequately prepared for UP - especially for any newbies who might have had ONLY been buying bitcoin for less than a full cycle and even moreso for newbies who are not in a position to front load their BTC investment, it seems that those kinds of newbies just need to be buying regularly (hopefully weekly) without having any thoughts about whether the BTC price is going up or down and including perhaps making sure other aspects of their cashflow management is either in a good place or continuing to build good cashflow management systems.
Also, each person needs to consider the extent to which there might be any value to holding any kind of extra value for buying on dips rather than just buying right away and on a weekly basis with whatever level of discretionary income that they consider to be a sufficiently adequate amount.
I really get your point but can you blame those newbies? If someone doesn't have the mentality of being prepared financially and otherwise then what do you expect, is like waiting for a train at the sea port, no plan of getting ready if something went wrong. I don't really blame the newbies because they only have one goal which is get your money in and expect to be rice the next day, the ones who find it a little bit easy are the ones who took their time to understand that it goes two ways either you lose or gain and these set of people are the knowledge seekers, they try to know more before getting involved, I'll say understanding and management are one of the keys to success when it comes to Bitcoin investment and you can as well include patience which to me is one of the hardest, just like we have Bitcoin dropping you'd see many losing it.